前一段和Victor教授讨论中国化石能源储量问题，V的一番解释说明，觉得很受启发。之前蔡老师“自然资源导论”也谈资源的理论储量、远景储量、探明储量和可开采储量。不过储量确实是一个值得探讨的问题，把“资源”转变为“储量”尤其是可开采的储量，大概会瘦身。数字本身的意义也许不是那么大，只能说明，在可见的未来，先说50年吧，中国的煤炭资源保证开采应该还不是一个问题。不过这又有很大的误导性，如果说“资源”短时间还不是一个问题，但储量还是一个问题，尤其是质量高、可进入性强、经济性好的“储量”，不过，谁知道我们有多少家底呢？
The data are complicated and the use of technical terms in the many sources is uneven. This email may, actually, now be the best summary of what is known written in plain English.
COAL
First, on coal. The reserves data are likely to move around a lot. We suggest using IEA as a starting point, and their best guess is 115 billion tonnes (metric) of coal. See IEA’s WEO (2007, which focused on China). P.334 has the numbers. Note, however, that this 115 number is in dispute, and most experts think the real number for proved reserves is probably higher, but some think it is lower. Barlow Jonker (a leading industry source) puts it at nearly double. And, as with all fuels, the reserve is not the underlying “resource,” which is much larger. “Resources” include undiscovered reserves that are likely or possible to be discovered in future. You might ask how people estimate things that have not been discovered, and the simple answer is voodoo. Geologists make a good guess based on the likely geology and then people pretend the numbers are more robust than they are. Expected RESOURCES for China are about 1 trillion metric tonnes. I don’t think anyone really knows what that number is.
World Energy Council, which is probably the best source for systematic data on reserves. Their most recent (2007) estimate based on data from 2005 is at:
http://www.worldenergy.org/documents/coal_1_1.pdf
They put the Chinese coal reserve number at 115 billion tonnes. This is based on data from the Chinese themselves and is suspiciously identical to the IEA WEO number. I doubt we are looking at independent data.
We have looked at some Chinese sources as well and Gang is checking a few more today. They are all over the map. At the end of this email I append an email from Gang that examines some recent official reporting in China on these data (and data on oil and gas reserves). It suggests that the coal resource (possibly “reserve”, though the Chinese data are not very careful about the huge difference between the two) is about 1 trillion tonnes. I seriously doubt that the actual proved reserve is that large—it is probably more like 100 to 200 billion tonnes.
Looking “on the ground” in China broadly confirms the story that Chinese proved coal reserves are a LOT lower than the available resource. China is finding coal all the time—in effect, it is converting “resource” into proved reserve. In 2008 the country “found” about 20 billion tonnes of coal more than it burned (per China Daily article: “China's newly proved coal reserves fall 43% in 2008” 2009-03-03 1” The amusing thing about this article is that it was complaining that 2008 was a bad year for coal discovery. They “only” found about 23 billion tonnes of coal that year.
Conversions: According to BP, 1 tonne of hard coal is worth about 27 million BTU. According to IEA, the AVERAGE conversion factor (per appendix B in the IEA WEO 2007 report) is 20.2 million BTU. Unfortunately, however, IEA uses regional specific conversion factors that might differ from the global AVERAGE, and that probably applies to China. They don’t publish those regional factors, and thus for now I’d suggest using a conversion factor of about 20 million BTU for IEA coal data. Chinese coal data are particularly hard to work with because the conversion factors differ. BP has a particularly helpful set of conversion factors listed in the last tab of the attached spreadsheet. I tend to work in million tonnes oil equivalent (MTOE) because that is standard outside the US. Once data are in MTOE the conversion factors don’t vary much, but heat content for coal varies wildly and getting the right heat value is tough.
GAS
Second, on gas. IEA (attached) shows on p.328 the numbers for gas, which are: proven reserves 3.720 trillion cubic meters (tcm). Probable reserves (which is a more generous accounting system that includes reserves that almost certainly will be found and booked) are about 5 tcm. BP’s estimate (which is on the attached BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2008 edition) for proved reserves is 1.88 tcm. BP and IEA both partially rely on data from Cedigaz, but BP uses other local sources. BP’s reserve number is about 66tcf (in our US units), which isn’t very much gas (but thanks to China’s current low gas consumption rate, booked reserves will last 27 years according to BP reserve and consumption data).
The IEA and BP numbers are much lower than Chinese numbers. The email from Gang (appended below) points to reporting from two official Chinese sources and puts the recoverable gas resource at about 22 TCM (in contrast with the 5 TCM estimate from IEA) and also reports the view of a former oil minister who maintains that the proven gas reserve at the end of 2007 was 4.7tcm, which would be higher than the IEA number and more than double the BP number. If you are looking for bombproof numbers then I’d use IEA or BP, but I’d be shocked in the proved Chinese gas numbers don’t rise a lot in the coming years. There’s a lot of gas in the west that hasn’t been examined closely and also a lot in the center of the country.
As you note in your email, there appear to be huge coalbed methane resources. An attached article (from China’s Ministry of Land & Resources) suggests the number might be 37 TCM, but it is hard to compare that number with the country’s actual gas reserves because 37 TCM is a “resource” (ie, hypothetical and not proved and certainly not available to the market—CBM is just getting started in China). Another source from the same ministry (see below) suggests CBM resources are 27 TCM and the recoverable reserve is 11 TCM. If you wanted to use a long-term number for likely available CBM then the best one is probably 11 TCM. That’s a huge number. For now, what I think we can reliably say about CBM is that it could help provide local gas supply if the country made a big push to gas. My guess, though, is that a big push on gas will also require large gas imports.
Converting gas data into oil- or BTU is done readily with the conversion factors at the end of the BP report (attached).
Let me add the caveat that also applies to coal: the reserves numbers for gas are very poor, in part because there haven’t been incentives to look for non-associated gas. People just found it when looking for oil. Yet most of China’s gas resource is probably non-associated. Moreover, there seems to be very loose use of terms like “resource” and “reserve”.
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China’s new round of national oil and gas resource evaluation end at 2008 at the official website of its office under China’s Ministry of Land and Resources(MLR), NDRC and Ministry of Finance.
http://www.sinooilgas.com/NewsShow.asp?NewsID=10650
This should be the most updated authoritative reserve data from China part, which is much much higher than the WEO data. (Recoverable resources: China MLR: 22 trillion cubic meters, and WEO: 5 trillion).
http://www.chinamining.org/News/2008-08-19/1219107623d16333.html
China's prospective resources of oil is estimated at 108.6 billion tons, and its oil reserves and production have entered a stage of steady growth, according the latest evaluation result made by a national office for oil and natural gas resource evaluation.
According to the Ministry of Land and Resources, after four years of work, the evaluation shows that China's prospective oil resources reach 108.6 billion tons, geological reserves are 76.5 billion tons, and recoverable resources are 21.2 billion tons. The exploration has come to a medium term.
The prospective resources of natural gas reach 56 trillion cubic meters, geological resources, 35 trillion cubic meters, and recoverable resources, 22 trillion cubic meters. The prospecting and exploration has entered an early term.
The geological resources of coal-bed methane are 37 trillion cubic meters, and recoverable resource, 11 trillion cubic meters.
The geological resources of shell shale oil are 47.6 billion tons, and recoverable shell shale oil, 12.0 billion tons.
The geological resources of oil sand are 6.0 billion tons, and the recoverable resources, 2.3 billion tons.
China's oil production is expected to maintain at 200 million tons by 2030, and natural gas production to keep at 250 billion cubic meters.
The national evaluation of oil and natural gas resources, started in 2003, is jointly organized by the Ministry of Land and Resources, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance. The work involved more than 1,700 people who are from oil companies, universities and scientific research institutes.
The evaluation of oil and natural gas resources covered the country's 115 basins, that of the coal-bed methane covered 42 coal-bearing basins, that of oil sand resources covered 106 mineral belts in 24 basins, and that of shell shale oil resources, 80 mining areas in 47 basins.
About 21.2 billion tonnes of crude could be developed under the current technology, said the Ministry of Land and Resource.
China is one of the world's biggest producer and consumer of oil.
Last year, it produced 186.66 million tonnes of oil and consumed more than 300 million tonnes.
The nation also produced 69.3 billion cubic meters of natural gasin 2007. The figure was expected to rise to 76 billion cubic meters this year.
