气候变化：一场没有硝烟的战争

 

也许是COP12/MOP2即将在内罗毕召开，这两天关于气候变化的报道特别多，海上刀给我发来了Stern Review Report的链接，因为前两天一则新闻以醍醐灌顶似的标题报道了这个报告的发布“温室效应危害堪比世界大战”，所以也就特别留意：

如果各国政府在未来10年内不采取行动遏制温室效应，那么全球将为此付出高达6.98万亿美元的经济代价，这将超过一战、二战和上世纪30年代的美国经济大衰退付出的代价。冰川大量融化所导致的气候变化会导致全球六分之一人口严重缺水，40%以上的野生物种灭绝，并造就多达两亿的“环境难民”。

我们没有别的选择：花费国内生产总值的1％尽力解决全球暖化问题，否则就要承受多5至20倍的经济损失。报告建议，联合国明年就修订《京都议定书》中关于温室气体排放的条文，而不要等到2010至2011年。这当然只是建议，京都议定书经历了漫长的谈判过程，而美国、澳大利亚至今仍徘徊在京都之外。

 

我下了这个报告，大家看看原文的陈述：

Our actions now and over the coming decades could create risks of major disruption to economic and social activity, on a scale similar to those associated with the great wars and the economic depression of the first half of the 20th century. And it will be difficult or impossible to reverse these changes.

这是一个警钟，人类时常需要警钟才能敲醒，从迷醉在自我的道路上，就像“寂静的春天”一样。江老师说，我们的警钟已经敲了，敲了很多次，可是听的人不多；中国对于能源的敏感性比对气候变化的敏感性要强，而对气候变化的认识还不够；如果中国21世纪要为世界做点什么的话，应对气候变化应该是中国和世界共同的责任。Neier说，中国的NGO还没有把气候变化纳入议程。

也不是没有好消息，一个是来自摩根斯坦利将投入30亿美元进行“绿色投资”，其中90％左右的投资，将用于在全球各排放交易系统中购买碳排放额度。剩余资金投向低排放能源项目，这些项目挣得的排放额度，进而可在各种排放市场中出售。这其实是一个商业计划，但是用市场时段来解决环境问题，也是人类的一个动力源泉。你也许要承认，一个人可以靠信仰驱动，但是一个社会，绝对是要靠利益来驱动的。

在Innovators’ Workshop里边我总结自己的收获，除了Motivation的讨论外，我从不用思考去呼吸去吃饭，而我们要反思去环保，所以这是我们的思维和生活习惯出了问题，我们要让我们的环保和呼吸吃饭一样，不需要思考和意识。Enjoy without Destroy. 并非要过苦行僧般的生活才能保护环境，而是改变Enjoy的方式，更健康。Leadership with Wisdom, and Action with Responsibility.

 

我们需要阿尔•戈尔的电影An Inconvenient Truth，他是这样的富有想象力和感染力，又如此的基于科学和事实的根据，因此，不是美国大片，但是却一样的吸引观众，扣人心弦而发人深省。虽然在伯克利的时候，我们就有幸看到了这部片的首映，但直到最进，国内还找不到质量好的DVD，而Youtube上有一个预告片，音乐和图片都还不错，不妨一看。我们还有机会和戈尔进行了一次电话的对话，戈尔跑了很多地方调查气候变化的证据，略带疲惫的声音却坚定的为保护气候而战，当然也许也为他的竞选。

几次跟气候变化相撞的经历，确实让我想在这个领域走得更远，也让我想做些事情，我知道我可以做的也许不多，我也知道我所能改变的有限，但是，我可以改变一些人，或者可以让我身边的人开始关注、理解正在发生和可能发生的一切，支持我们的行动同时也和我们一起行动。There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if we take strong action now.

Bo回信说”The Stern report published yesterday is in itself a definition of the need to give a rapid answer to the question “How on Earth can We Live Together?”. The four values that are inscribed in the beautiful plaque that you gave me – Hardworking, Meticulous, Down to Earth and Innovation – are indeed the most important stepping stones to that end. ”

 

再看Stern报告给我们的建议，这是大的方面，小的就是我们都过“碳中(Carbon Neutral)”生活吧。

Key elements of future international frameworks should include:

• Emissions trading: Expanding and linking the growing number of emissions trading schemes around the world is a powerful way to promote cost-effective reductions in emissions and to bring forward action in developing countries: strong targets in rich countries could drive flows amounting to tens of billions of dollars each year to support the transition to low-carbon development paths.

• Technology cooperation: Informal co-ordination as well as formal agreements can boost the effectiveness of investments in innovation around the world. Globally, support for energy R&D should at least double, and support for the deployment of new low-carbon technologies should increase up to five-fold. International cooperation on product standards is a powerful way to boost energy efficiency.

• Action to reduce deforestation: The loss of natural forests around the world contributes more to global emissions each year than the transport sector. Curbing deforestation is a highly cost-effective way to reduce emissions; large-scale international pilot programmes to explore the best ways to do this could get underway very quickly.

• Adaptation: The poorest countries are most vulnerable to climate change. It is essential that climate change be fully integrated into development policy, and that rich countries honor their pledges to increase support through overseas development assistance. International funding should also support improved regional information on climate change impacts, and research into new crop varieties that will be more resilient to drought and flood.